There will be no blow in Syria before Obama`s meeting with Putin. Such a forecast was made by Russian historian Nicolay Starikov in his blog. Informational-analytical site “NewsBalt” publishes his thoughts.
The situation in Syria escalated to the highest degree. Whether the aggression of the States and their allies follows? Let`s look into the reasons of this situation escalation then we get information for analytics.
1. US strategy in the Near East is to sow Chaos, destroy state system and to zero states` economy and level of life in the region by all means. The aim of all these is to create new “collective Hitler”, new power which then they plan to lead to Central Asia through Afghanistan. Further having caused upheavals there to throw firebrands of conflagration inside Russia and China.
2. Islamic factor performs the banner of “change”. For each time Anglo-Saxons choose its banner.In the early 20th century it was social factor (workers against bourgeoisie), in the middle 20th century – national (Aryans against non-Aryans), today – religious (Islamists against all the rest).
3. The plan began to work. The USA has destroyed Libya and Yemen, has shaken Morocco and Tunisia. Syria was to crash down then but with the support of Russia and China it resisted.
4. Having not coped with Assad, the USA began to experience problems with their reputation. Militants and terrorists do not manage to fulfill the task and they themselves can`t interfere the full-length. Chaos must be “on its own” separately from the American army, and not be a consequence of its arrival anywhere. Having interfered just once and even this time in secret (Special Forces) in the events in Libya, the USA created a precedent. The brutal murder of Kaddafi should have discouraged the resistance of all the leaders in the region. But Assad hasn`t flinched and Syria doesn`t entirely descend into Chaos. The authority of the country holds on and the further the more support it receives from the population. They can`t invade and they need to destroy the country. Then the States decided to exit Syrian situation. To exit in order to come back later not at once.
5. Leaving Syria the USA began to change the informational background. World`s media began to talk about “terrorists”, though earlier there were exclusively rebels. Nobody thought to blame the Syrian army in shooting of 450 Kurds (women and children), it was said at once that these were militants.
6. The first result of leaving Syria by the USA became their surrender of Muslim Brothers regime to Egyptian military. Having received the carte blanche from the USA, army restored order rigidly. It shed blood feeling no shy like having forgotten about “Hague’s court”. Was it “suddenly” that the Egyptian army decided to shoot dead the demonstrations in protection of legal president Morsi, who was removed by the military themselves? And two years ago did the army fear to protect legal president Mubarak? No. Two years ago Americans told Egyptians to surrender Mubarak and now they permitted to remove Morsi – that`s all the difference.
7. The reason of new regime destruction is purely informational – Islamists must become very bad. In order the USA would be able to stop supporting them without losing the reputation. However new Egypt was to play the role of “vitrine”. Look, here Islamic radical have come to power and the country lives a normal life. Yes, its life is hard. But in Libya and Syria where the leaders haven`t refused their power the situation is much worse. That`s why you should refuse it (power), in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and so on.
8. Already before the events in Egypt on the background of “Snowden`s case” president of the USA refused to meet president of Russia during the meeting of the heads of 20 leading countries (G20) in Petersburg on September, 5-6th. This decision was caused no by the fact that Russia granted an asylum to American citizen. Snowden was just a pretext – the US diplomacy simply had no trump cards for conversation with Putin.
9. Instead of communication with Obama Russia and China planned to announce the creation of new “monetary union” in the sovereign fund form. The ability to issue debt securities and the ability of crediting of business-projects at a low interest rates in Russia and China for domestic and foreign businessmen as well must become its main counter. In the case of the realization of this project Anglo-Saxons are hit as it`s said in the gut. At the same time the place of the announcement attracts attention of all the world`s media – it`s impossible to keep it in secret.
10. In Washington and London they become aware of the information about the intensions of Russia and China. They need the trump card urgently in spooky time trouble they have to create a serious problem for Russians and Chinese in order to exchange it to the refusal of the announcement of “monetary union” creation.
11. And “suddenly” the situation around Syria is escalated. Having no evidence of using chemical weapons in principle, having no evidence of using these weapons exactly by the Syrian army, the USA and their closest allies are “suddenly” ready to start the war against Bashar Assad WITHOUT UN SANCTIONS. The sense of their actions is to slam the door as loud as necessary to make everybody turn away from the window.
12. They can`t fight by land in Syria – they`ll have losses and serious. They also can`t bomb Syria with impunity – there are our anti-aircraft defense systems there. To the same bombing will do no good. It`s not Kosovo – there`s nobody and nowhere to separate from here. But there`s no exit, they must react to Russian-Chinese financial threat, breaking the basis of their power. And here we see West is flapping its wings and making statements one more redoubtable than another. It happens on August the 26th.
13. On Tuesday, August the 27th, the US statements` tonality magically changes. Now the question is just “punishment” with missiles, landing and overthrow of Assad is not a question. On Wednesday, August the 28th, the tonality softens even more, Great Britain speaks on introduction the resolution in the UN, though two days ago it stated that it would begin the war just on its will with no authorization from the international society.
14. Just one fact leads Western leaders to changing their rhetoric and decline of passions: nevertheless Obama will meet Putin in Petersburg (the day before it was announced by white House spokesman Jay Carney “Russia is a receiving party, G20 summit will take place in Saint-Petersburg. That`s why they`ll of course meet each other”. – “NewsBalt”). Negotiations will be held, it means, the USA will try to exchange the problem of war in the Near East created by them to non-announcement of “monetary union” between Russia and China.
15. It`s always a thankless task to make forecasts. Especially in the situation when the USA are cornered and experience hard time trouble. But considering all the volume of the information there will be more likely no blow in Syria before Obama`s meeting with Putin and most likely in principle.
16. Instead of this the negotiating“partners” will agree on exchange. After that the USA begin to return in Syria, that is they start reinforced arms and money supplies to “rebels” and Russia and China prepare new good opportunity for “monetary union” announcement. Everything will be as usual. Having just agreed each party tries to cheat its negotiating “partner”. It`s a policy…
In this situation I cannot but be unhappy about two things: impossibility of the USA to solve all the accumulated problems with a help of their resources and the necessity to negotiate with other powerful centers. This has no connection with the single superpower status. And the second which I can`t feel unhappy about is that Chaos which is sowed by Anglo-Saxons in the Near East is already leading to the fact that they have bogged down in it themselves. And these gives an opportunity to Russia and China to strike a blow in the most sensible place for the USA and Great Britain – in financial sphere which is the basis of their power.